AU Election: Can Baba Raila Odinga be a Dlamini Zuma in A Francophone Dominated Continent?
Using the historical influence of the African Francophone countries in the African Union, AU, and their numbers, one would suggest that there will be highest probability for Baba Raila, the Kenyan, to win, if his team will be able to understand the dynamics of Francophone Countries, at certain extend the entire Economic Comunity of West African Countries, the . ECOWAS, and South Africa's geopolitical aspirations within the BRICS, they are the makers.
Looking at the 19 states support, one can unequivocally assume that so far, it looks like Baba (Not the South African Baba, former President Zuma) has managed to convince the EAC, but I dought about the Democratic Republic of Congo, the DRC, because of the on and off relationship between the two Presidents, Dr Ruto of Kenya and the DRC’s Tshisekedi.
One would also present uncertainty towards the veteran leader, the Ugandan President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, he seems to be in a casual relationship with Djibout! Him, General Museveni, sorry! President Museveni has sent a signal, Djibout, “I might be behind you, Djibout.”
Concerning the SADC, one would be a little bit careful in predicting the individual countries’ choices, but what seems to be possible perhaps that has contributed to the 19 possible votes (please mind my word “Possible”) of Baba Raila Odinga is the deplomatic proximity of both:
1. Mozambique
2. RSA
3. Angola
4. Tanzania
5. Zambia
6. and every other SADC countries that attended President Kagame’s inauguration.
Citeris paribus, if Dr Ruto managed to organize a tête á tête with all the Presidents and Government representatives in Kigali during his inauguration, the Kenyan Baba could have collected some possible votes.
But, should the Kenyan Baba takes the Springbok serious, for him to be a Dlamini Zuma?
Cyril Ramaphosa, the leader of the great nation in the continent, is he a good brother who can turn the Kenyan Baba to a South African Dlamini Zuma at the AU headquarter in Ethiopia?
Equally so, the contestation between two Francophones, Mauritius and Madagascar, can be of a positive boost to Baba, Raila Odinga the former Prime-Minister and Kenyan Mangusuthu Buthelezi.
However, the above can be a hypothetically problematic with uncertainty if France mediates the two countries for them to have one candidate representing the Francophone block, for the benefit of Paris.
Using all the above assumptions, one would argue that for Baba Raila Odinga to swim in swimming pool of joy in Addis Ababa, his team needs to understand the Franceafrique dimension, and the Nigeria and South Africa’s Tom and Jerry cartoonistic diplomatic game. It must not behave like a Rambo in the first Blood popularly know as Rambo 1.
